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Sport Victoria vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
8/30/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Victoria32%
×Draw24%
Union Huaral44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Victoria
1.42
Union Huaral
1.70

Union Huaral creates 20% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sport Victoria
1.20
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Sport Victoria
2.08
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Sport Victoria+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Victoria ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sport Victoria or draw
56%
Sport Victoria or Union Huaral
76%
Draw or Union Huaral
68%

Winning margin

Sport Victoria wins by 2+
15%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sport Victoria 1+ goals
76%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
41%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
17%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
82%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
51%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
42%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Victoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 25 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Victoria attack 1.20 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Sport Victoria defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Victoria scores more
32%
level
24%
Union Huaral scores more
44%

Union Huaral at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sport Victoria 3–2 Union Huaral

Sport Victoria beat Union Huaral 3-2 in Segunda División on August 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica).