Union Huaral 2–1 Molinos El Pirata: Result & Stats

Union Huaral

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Molinos El Pirata

9/25/2022

Segunda División · Clausura - 13Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Union Huaral57%

×Draw23%

Molinos El Pirata21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union HuaralExpected goals in this matchMolinos El Pirata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.02

Union Huaral

1.85

Molinos El Pirata

1.02

Union Huaral creates 81% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 64 away

1.63

creates per match

0.95

1.10

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Union Huaral

1.63

Molinos El Pirata

0.95

allows per match

Union Huaral

1.10

Molinos El Pirata

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Molinos El Pirata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw

79%

Union Huaral or Molinos El Pirata

77%

Draw or Molinos El Pirata

43%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+

33%

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals

84%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

55%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

28%

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

64%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

27%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

73%

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.95 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Union Huaral scores more

57%

level

23%

Molinos El Pirata scores more

21%

Union Huaral at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff