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Molinos El Pirata vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Molinos El Pirata
Molinos El Pirata
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
7/24/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Molinos El Pirata39%
×Draw25%
Union Huaral35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molinos El Pirata
1.44
Union Huaral
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Molinos El Pirata
1.23
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Molinos El Pirata
1.39
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molinos El Pirata ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Molinos El Pirata or draw
65%
Molinos El Pirata or Union Huaral
75%
Draw or Union Huaral
61%

Winning margin

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+
19%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals
76%
Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals
42%
Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals
18%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
74%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
39%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)
53%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molinos El Pirata attack 1.23 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Molinos El Pirata scores more
39%
level
25%
Union Huaral scores more
35%

Molinos El Pirata at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Molinos El Pirata vs Union Huaral

Molinos El Pirata beat Union Huaral 1-0 in Segunda División on July 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud in Chongoyape.