Union Huaral 1–1 Comerciantes: Result & Stats

Union Huaral

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Comerciantes

7/9/2023

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Union Huaral48%

×Draw27%

Comerciantes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union HuaralExpected goals in this matchComerciantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.96

Union Huaral

1.42

Comerciantes

0.96

Union Huaral creates 48% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

1.63

creates per match

0.82

1.10

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Union Huaral

1.63

Comerciantes

0.82

allows per match

Union Huaral

1.10

Comerciantes

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Comerciantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Comerciantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw

75%

Union Huaral or Comerciantes

73%

Draw or Comerciantes

52%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+

23%

Comerciantes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals

76%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

41%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

17%

Comerciantes 1+ goals

62%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

25%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

65%

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Comerciantes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Comerciantes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Comerciantes attack 0.82 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Huaral scores more

48%

level

27%

Comerciantes scores more

25%

Union Huaral at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff