Comerciantes 0–0 Union Huaral: Result & Stats

Comerciantes

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Huaral

4/16/2023

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Max Augustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Comerciantes56%

×Draw23%

Union Huaral21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComerciantesExpected goals in this matchUnion Huaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.97

Comerciantes

1.76

Union Huaral

0.97

Comerciantes creates 81% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

1.89

creates per match

1.32

0.61

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Comerciantes

1.89

Union Huaral

1.32

allows per match

Comerciantes

0.61

Union Huaral

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comerciantes+0.00on par

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes ↓

Union Huaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Comerciantes or draw

79%

Comerciantes or Union Huaral

77%

Draw or Union Huaral

44%

Winning margin

Comerciantes wins by 2+

31%

Union Huaral wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Comerciantes 1+ goals

83%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

52%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

26%

Union Huaral 1+ goals

62%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

25%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

73%

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.61 · 44 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes attack 1.89 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.76

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Comerciantes defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Comerciantes scores more

56%

level

23%

Union Huaral scores more

21%

Comerciantes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Comerciantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff