Union Huaral 1–0 Carlos Stein: Result & Stats

Union Huaral

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Carlos Stein

5/15/2023

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Union Huaral62%

×Draw20%

Carlos Stein18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union HuaralExpected goals in this matchCarlos Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.10

Union Huaral

2.21

Carlos Stein

1.10

Union Huaral creates 101% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

1.63

creates per match

1.09

1.10

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Union Huaral

1.63

Carlos Stein

1.09

allows per match

Union Huaral

1.10

Carlos Stein

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Carlos Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw

82%

Union Huaral or Carlos Stein

80%

Draw or Carlos Stein

38%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+

39%

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals

89%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

65%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

38%

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

67%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

30%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

78%

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Union Huaral scores more

62%

level

20%

Carlos Stein scores more

18%

Union Huaral at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff