Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlos Stein vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
8/4/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carlos Stein30%
×Draw23%
Union Huaral47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.38
Union Huaral
1.78

Union Huaral creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
53%
Carlos Stein or Union Huaral
77%
Draw or Union Huaral
70%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
13%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
75%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
40%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
16%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
83%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
53%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
39%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
30%
level
23%
Union Huaral scores more
47%

Union Huaral at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Carlos Stein 3–3 Union Huaral

Carlos Stein and Union Huaral drew 3-3 in Segunda División on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres in Ferreñafe.