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Union Huaral vs Atletico Grau — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
9/30/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 11Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Union Huaral50%
×Draw23%
Atletico Grau26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.78
Atletico Grau
1.23

Union Huaral creates 45% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 40 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
Atletico Grau
1.35

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
Atletico Grau
1.93

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
74%
Union Huaral or Atletico Grau
77%
Draw or Atletico Grau
50%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
28%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
83%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
53%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
26%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
65%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Atletico Grau defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atletico Grau attack 1.35 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Huaral scores more
50%
level
23%
Atletico Grau scores more
26%

Union Huaral at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Union Huaral 4–1 Atletico Grau

Union Huaral beat Atletico Grau 4-1 in Segunda División on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.