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Atletico Grau vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
10/20/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal de Bernal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Atletico Grau63%
×Draw20%
Union Huaral17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
2.21
Union Huaral
1.07

Atletico Grau creates 107% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 66 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
83%
Atletico Grau or Union Huaral
80%
Draw or Union Huaral
37%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
40%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
89%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
65%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
38%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
66%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
29%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
78%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.21

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
63%
level
20%
Union Huaral scores more
17%

Atletico Grau at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atletico Grau 4–0 Union Huaral

Atletico Grau beat Union Huaral 4-0 in Segunda División on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Bernal in Humay.