Union Huaral vs Alianza Universidad

Union Huaral

CANC

20:00

Alianza Universidad

6/30/2024

Segunda División · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Union Huaral40%

×Draw25%

Alianza Universidad35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union HuaralExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.35

Union Huaral

1.48

Alianza Universidad

1.35

Union Huaral creates 10% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 43 away

1.63

creates per match

1.60

1.10

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Union Huaral

1.63

Alianza Universidad

1.60

allows per match

Union Huaral

1.10

Alianza Universidad

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw

65%

Union Huaral or Alianza Universidad

75%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

60%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+

19%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals

77%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

43%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

19%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

74%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

39%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

54%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alianza Universidad attack 1.60 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Huaral scores more

40%

level

25%

Alianza Universidad scores more

35%

Union Huaral at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff