Alianza Universidad 1–0 Union Huaral

Alianza Universidad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Huaral

9/27/2023

Segunda División · Round 26Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alianza Universidad54%

×Draw23%

Union Huaral23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchUnion Huaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.14

Alianza Universidad

1.86

Union Huaral

1.14

Alianza Universidad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 66 away

2.09

creates per match

1.32

0.95

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

2.09

Union Huaral

1.32

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

0.95

Union Huaral

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Union Huaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

77%

Alianza Universidad or Union Huaral

77%

Draw or Union Huaral

46%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

31%

Union Huaral wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

84%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

55%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

28%

Union Huaral 1+ goals

68%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

32%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

70%

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.86

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

54%

level

23%

Union Huaral scores more

23%

Alianza Universidad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff