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Union Huaral vs Alianza Atletico — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
6/2/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal Julio Lores Colán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Union Huaral46%
×Draw25%
Alianza Atletico29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.58
Alianza Atletico
1.19

Union Huaral creates 33% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
Alianza Atletico
1.28

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
Alianza Atletico
1.53

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Alianza Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
71%
Union Huaral or Alianza Atletico
75%
Draw or Alianza Atletico
54%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
24%
Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
79%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
47%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
21%
Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
70%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
33%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
62%
Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Alianza Atletico attack 1.28 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union Huaral scores more
46%
level
25%
Alianza Atletico scores more
29%

Union Huaral at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Union Huaral 3–3 Alianza Atletico

Union Huaral and Alianza Atletico drew 3-3 in Segunda División on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julio Lores Colán in Huaral.