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Alianza Atletico vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
11/27/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alianza Atletico56%
×Draw22%
Union Huaral22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
1.93
Union Huaral
1.11

Alianza Atletico creates 74% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
2.22
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.91
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
78%
Alianza Atletico or Union Huaral
78%
Draw or Union Huaral
44%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
33%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
85%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
57%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
30%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
67%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
30%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
72%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.93

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
56%
level
22%
Union Huaral scores more
22%

Alianza Atletico at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alianza Atletico 0–0 Union Huaral

Alianza Atletico and Union Huaral drew 0-0 in Segunda División on November 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.