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Union Frintrop vs Kleve — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kleve
Kleve
2/8/2026Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Union Frintrop48%
×Draw22%
Kleve30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Frintrop
1.98
Kleve
1.52

Union Frintrop creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 89 away

creates per match

Union Frintrop
2.00
Kleve
1.31

allows per match

Union Frintrop
1.73
Kleve
1.97

finishing

Union Frintrop+0.00on par
Kleve+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Frintrop ↓

Kleve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Union Frintrop or draw
70%
Union Frintrop or Kleve
78%
Draw or Kleve
52%

Winning margin

Union Frintrop wins by 2+
27%
Kleve wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Frintrop 1+ goals
86%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
59%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
31%
Kleve 1+ goals
78%
Kleve 2+ goals
45%
Kleve 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
62%
Kleve (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Frintrop at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Kleve away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.97 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Frintrop attack 2.00 + Kleve defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kleve attack 1.31 + Union Frintrop defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Frintrop scores more
48%
level
22%
Kleve scores more
30%

Union Frintrop at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Frintrop will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Union Frintrop 3–2 Kleve

Union Frintrop beat Kleve 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm in Essen.