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Kleve vs Union Frintrop — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kleve
Kleve
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
8/24/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 2Eroglu-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kleve49%
×Draw24%
Union Frintrop27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kleve
1.74
Union Frintrop
1.24

Kleve creates 40% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kleve
1.66
Union Frintrop
0.97

allows per match

Kleve
1.51
Union Frintrop
1.82

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par
Union Frintrop+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

Union Frintrop →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kleve or draw
73%
Kleve or Union Frintrop
76%
Draw or Union Frintrop
51%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+
26%
Union Frintrop wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals
82%
Kleve 2+ goals
52%
Kleve 3+ goals
25%
Union Frintrop 1+ goals
71%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
35%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)
64%
Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

Union Frintrop away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + Union Frintrop defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.74

Union Frintrop attack 0.97 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kleve scores more
49%
level
24%
Union Frintrop scores more
27%

Kleve at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kleve vs Union Frintrop

Kleve beat Union Frintrop 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Eroglu-Arena in Kleve.