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Union Frintrop vs Hilden — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hilden
Hilden
E. Brechmann 90+1', 75'
Y. Reiners 86'
P. Schmetz 90+5'
T. Demir 44'
8/11/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Union Frintrop35%
×Draw22%
Hilden44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Frintrop
1.73
Hilden
1.96

Hilden creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 91 away

creates per match

Union Frintrop
2.00
Hilden
2.19

allows per match

Union Frintrop
1.73
Hilden
1.45

finishing

Union Frintrop+0.00on par
Hilden+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Frintrop ↓

Hilden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Union Frintrop or draw
56%
Union Frintrop or Hilden
78%
Draw or Hilden
65%

Winning margin

Union Frintrop wins by 2+
17%
Hilden wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Union Frintrop 1+ goals
82%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
52%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
25%
Hilden 1+ goals
86%
Hilden 2+ goals
58%
Hilden 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
44%
Hilden (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Frintrop at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Hilden away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Frintrop attack 2.00 + Hilden defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hilden attack 2.19 + Union Frintrop defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Frintrop scores more
35%
level
22%
Hilden scores more
44%

Hilden at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
T. Demir
75'
E. Brechmann
86'
Y. Reiners
90+1'
E. Brechmann
90+5'
P. Schmetz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Union Frintrop 3–2 Hilden

Union Frintrop beat Hilden 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 11, 2023.

Goals: T. Demir (44'), E. Brechmann (75', 90+1'), Y. Reiners (86'), P. Schmetz (90+5').

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm in Essen.