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Hilden vs Union Frintrop — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Hilden
Hilden
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
12/16/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hilden60%
×Draw21%
Union Frintrop19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilden
2.04
Union Frintrop
1.04

Hilden creates 96% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hilden
2.27
Union Frintrop
0.97

allows per match

Hilden
1.12
Union Frintrop
1.82

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par
Union Frintrop+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

Union Frintrop →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hilden or draw
81%
Hilden or Union Frintrop
79%
Draw or Union Frintrop
40%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+
37%
Union Frintrop wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals
87%
Hilden 2+ goals
60%
Hilden 3+ goals
33%
Union Frintrop 1+ goals
65%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
28%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)
76%
Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

Union Frintrop away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + Union Frintrop defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.04

Union Frintrop attack 0.97 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hilden scores more
60%
level
21%
Union Frintrop scores more
19%

Hilden at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilden vs Union Frintrop

Hilden and Union Frintrop drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse in Hilden.