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Union Feltre vs Caldiero Terme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Union Feltre
Union Feltre
FT
1 – 1
Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
10/13/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 8Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Feltre36%
×Draw31%
Caldiero Terme33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Feltre
1.02
Caldiero Terme
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 47 away

creates per match

Union Feltre
0.86
Caldiero Terme
1.34

allows per match

Union Feltre
0.57
Caldiero Terme
1.19

finishing

Union Feltre+0.00on par
Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Feltre ↓

Caldiero Terme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Union Feltre or draw
67%
Union Feltre or Caldiero Terme
69%
Draw or Caldiero Terme
64%

Winning margin

Union Feltre wins by 2+
14%
Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Feltre 1+ goals
64%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
27%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
8%
Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
62%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
25%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Feltre (draw refunded)
52%
Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Feltre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Feltre attack 0.86 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Union Feltre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Union Feltre scores more
36%
level
31%
Caldiero Terme scores more
33%

Union Feltre at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Feltre vs Caldiero Terme

Union Feltre and Caldiero Terme drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre).