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Caldiero Terme vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
FT
0 – 2
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
L. Veratti 51', 16'
2/16/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 27Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Caldiero Terme30%
×Draw24%
Union Feltre46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.30
Union Feltre
1.66

Union Feltre creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 13 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
54%
Caldiero Terme or Union Feltre
76%
Draw or Union Feltre
70%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
13%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
73%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
37%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
14%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
81%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
49%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
40%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
30%
level
24%
Union Feltre scores more
46%

Union Feltre at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
L. Veratti
51'
L. Veratti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Caldiero Terme 0–2 Union Feltre

Union Feltre beat Caldiero Terme 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 16, 2020.

Goals: L. Veratti (16', 51').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero).