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Union Feltre vs Adriese — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Union Feltre
Union Feltre
FT
1 – 1
Adriese
Adriese
9/15/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 4Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Feltre39%
×Draw30%
Adriese31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Feltre
1.11
Adriese
0.97

Union Feltre creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 101 away

creates per match

Union Feltre
0.86
Adriese
1.36

allows per match

Union Feltre
0.57
Adriese
1.36

finishing

Union Feltre+0.00on par
Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Feltre ↓

Adriese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Union Feltre or draw
69%
Union Feltre or Adriese
70%
Draw or Adriese
61%

Winning margin

Union Feltre wins by 2+
16%
Adriese wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Feltre 1+ goals
67%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
30%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
10%
Adriese 1+ goals
62%
Adriese 2+ goals
25%
Adriese 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Feltre (draw refunded)
55%
Adriese (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Feltre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Feltre attack 0.86 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Adriese attack 1.36 + Union Feltre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Feltre scores more
39%
level
30%
Adriese scores more
31%

Union Feltre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Union Feltre 1–1 Adriese

Union Feltre and Adriese drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre).