Adriese 1–0 Union Feltre: Result & Stats

Adriese

FT

1 – 0

Union Feltre

1/19/2020

Serie D - Girone C · Round 23Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi (Adria)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Adriese37%

×Draw24%

Union Feltre39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdrieseExpected goals in this matchUnion Feltre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.54

Adriese

1.48

Union Feltre

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 13 away

1.64

creates per match

2.00

1.07

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Adriese

1.64

Union Feltre

2.00

allows per match

Adriese

1.07

Union Feltre

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par

Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Union Feltre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Adriese or draw

61%

Adriese or Union Feltre

76%

Draw or Union Feltre

63%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+

17%

Union Feltre wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals

77%

Adriese 2+ goals

43%

Adriese 3+ goals

19%

Union Feltre 1+ goals

79%

Union Feltre 2+ goals

45%

Union Feltre 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)

48%

Union Feltre (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adriese scores more

37%

level

24%

Union Feltre scores more

39%

Union Feltre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff