Union Espanola 1–1 Fluminense: Result & Stats

Union Espanola

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fluminense

P. Aranguiz 83'

Nonato 90'

4/23/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Union Espanola26%

×Draw27%

Fluminense47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EspanolaExpected goals in this matchFluminense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.44

Union Espanola

1.01

Fluminense

1.44

Fluminense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

1.38

1.50

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Union Espanola

1.17

Fluminense

1.38

allows per match

Union Espanola

1.50

Fluminense

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Fluminense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Fluminense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw

53%

Union Espanola or Fluminense

73%

Draw or Fluminense

74%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+

10%

Fluminense wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals

64%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

27%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

8%

Fluminense 1+ goals

76%

Fluminense 2+ goals

42%

Fluminense 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

36%

Fluminense (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Fluminense away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.17 + Fluminense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Fluminense attack 1.38 + Union Espanola defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Espanola scores more

26%

level

27%

Fluminense scores more

47%

Fluminense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

B. Vejar

Union Espanola · D

7.9

Match Events

34'

46'

58'

65'

66'

70'

Wesley Nata← K. Serna

71'

J. Lavega← R. Lezcano

71'

Paulo Baya← Keno

72'

Nicolás Díaz

81'

Gustavo Cintra← Vagno

83'

P. Aranguiz↳ B. Vejar

87'

Matías Suárez

88'

S. Pereira← F. Espinoza

88'

G. Norambuena← M. Suarez

90+4'

Everaldo

90'

Nonato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionFluminense

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots9

1Corners1

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target3

6Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box3

7Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

491Total Passes462

409Accurate Passes382

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Union Espanola 1–1 Fluminense

Union Espanola and Fluminense drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Aranguiz (83'), Nonato (90').

Union Espanola controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Florida in La Florida.

Union Espanola vs Fluminense — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Union Espanola 1–1 Fluminense