Fluminense 2–0 Union Espanola: Result & Stats

Fluminense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Espanola

Samuel Xavier 77'

Keno 47'

5/14/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fluminense75%

×Draw19%

Union Espanola6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchUnion Espanola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.35

Fluminense

1.88

Union Espanola

0.35

Fluminense creates 437% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

0.25

0.46

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Fluminense

2.00

Union Espanola

0.25

allows per match

Fluminense

0.46

Union Espanola

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense+0.00on par

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Union Espanola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

94%

Fluminense or Union Espanola

81%

Draw or Union Espanola

25%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

47%

Union Espanola wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

85%

Fluminense 2+ goals

56%

Fluminense 3+ goals

29%

Union Espanola 1+ goals

30%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

5%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

92%

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 2.00 + Union Espanola defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Union Espanola attack 0.25 + Fluminense defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Fluminense scores more

75%

level

19%

Union Espanola scores more

6%

Fluminense at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Arias

Fluminense · M

9.7

Match Events

9'

Keno← A. Canobbio

28'

Jhon AriasPenalty confirmed

29'

Ignacio Núñez

36'

L. Naranjo← F. Ovelar

47'

Keno↳ J. Arias

62'

Leonardo Naranjo

68'

I. Jeraldino← M. Suarez

70'

70'

70'

70'

71'

77'

83'

F. Espinoza← P. Aranguiz

83'

R. Vasquez← A. Uribe

84'

Hercules← Samuel Xavier

84'

R. Lezcano←

84'

Isaque Silva← Everaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseUnion

Overview

67%Possession33%

28Total Shots7

14Corners0

10Fouls14

Shots

28Total Shots7

12On Target1

12Off Target5

4Blocked1

19Inside Box4

9Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

578Total Passes297

502Accurate Passes234

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Fluminense vs Union Espanola

Fluminense beat Union Espanola 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 14, 2025.

Goals: Keno (47'), Samuel Xavier (77').

Fluminense controlled possession (67%) and registered 28 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.

Fluminense vs Union Espanola — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fluminense vs Union Espanola