Union Espanola 2–2 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

Union Espanola

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Everton de Vina

P. Aranguiz 45' (pen)

I. Jeraldino 9'

I. Ramirez 82' (pen), 3'

3/5/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Espanola24%

×Draw27%

Everton de Vina49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EspanolaExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.42

Union Espanola

0.92

Everton de Vina

1.42

Everton de Vina creates 54% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.17

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Union Espanola

1.17

Everton de Vina

1.33

allows per match

Union Espanola

1.50

Everton de Vina

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw

51%

Union Espanola or Everton de Vina

73%

Draw or Everton de Vina

76%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+

8%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals

60%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

23%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

7%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

76%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

41%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

33%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.17 + Everton de Vina defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Everton de Vina attack 1.33 + Union Espanola defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Union Espanola scores more

24%

level

27%

Everton de Vina scores more

49%

Everton de Vina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

F. Torgnascioli

Union Espanola · G

8.3

Match Events

3'

I. Ramirez↳ A. Medina

4'

9'

16'

17'

24'

R. Pineiro← M. Guzman

41'

Hugo Magallanes

45'

P. AranguizPenalty

46'

Diego Hernandez← H. Magallanes

56'

Felipe Espinoza

56'

Diego Hernández

64'

M. Suarez← I. Jeraldino

68'

N. Baeza← A. Medina

72'

A. Nadruz← B. Jauregui

78'

Nicolás Díaz

82'

I. RamirezPenalty

83'

B. A. Carvallo U.← R. Vasquez

90'

J. Cruz← I. Ramirez

98'

Rodrigo Piñeiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionEverton

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots14

4Corners7

14Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target7

3Off Target7

3Blocked0

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

310Total Passes354

247Accurate Passes271

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

4Offsides1