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Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Union Espanola
Union Espanola
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
D. González 90+6'
V. Adamo 90+2'
B. Yáñez 86'
P. Aránguiz 26'
M. Campos 81'
R. Contreras 74'
4/13/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 8Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Union Espanola50%
×Draw23%
Everton de Vina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Espanola
1.83
Everton de Vina
1.27

Union Espanola creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Union Espanola
2.05
Everton de Vina
0.97

allows per match

Union Espanola
1.57
Everton de Vina
1.61

finishing

Union Espanola+0.38scores more
Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Everton de Vina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw
73%
Union Espanola or Everton de Vina
77%
Draw or Everton de Vina
50%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+
28%
Everton de Vina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals
84%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
54%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
28%
Everton de Vina 1+ goals
72%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
36%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)
65%
Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 2.05 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.83

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + Union Espanola defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Espanola scores more
50%
level
23%
Everton de Vina scores more
27%

Union Espanola at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. UribeUnion EspanolaUnion Espanola · M
8.6

Match Events

26'
P. Aránguiz↳ A. Uribe
33'
Fernando OvelarGoal cancelled
45+8'
Pablo Aránguiz
45+8'
Benjamín Berríos
45+6'
Rodrigo Contreras
46'
F. Villagrán← Á. Madrid
59'
Sebastián Pereira
63'
T. Asta-Buruaga← S. Pereira
63'
F. Martínez← K. Méndez
68'
B. Yáñez← F. Ovelar
70'
M. Campos← O. Fernández
74'
R. Contreras↳ B. Martínez
79'
V. Adamo← F. Frías
79'
B. Jáuregui← I. Núñez
79'
N. Peñailillo← S. Magnasco
81'
M. Campos↳ R. Contreras
86'
B. Yáñez↳ A. Uribe
90+8'
Valentin AdamoGoal confirmed
90+4'
J. Tiznado← P. Aránguiz
90+2'
V. Adamo↳ S. Ramírez
90+6'
D. González↳ V. Adamo

Possession

51%Union

Shots

22Union

Pass accuracy

52%Union

Statistics

UnionEverton
Overview
51%Possession49%
22Total Shots15
2.45Expected Goals (xG)2.19
5Corners12
10Fouls11
Shots
22Total Shots15
8On Target6
11Off Target5
3Blocked4
14Inside Box9
8Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
354Total Passes340
264Accurate Passes230
75%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina

Union Espanola beat Everton de Vina 4-2 in Primera División on April 13, 2024.

Goals: P. Aránguiz (26'), R. Contreras (74'), M. Campos (81'), B. Yáñez (86'), V. Adamo (90+2'), D. González (90+6').

Union Espanola controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.