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Union Espanola vs Deportes Valdivia — Copa Chile 2019

Union Espanola
Union Espanola
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
7/13/2019Copa ChileCopa Chile · 8th FinalsEstadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union Espanola42%
×Draw25%
Deportes Valdivia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Espanola
1.48
Deportes Valdivia
1.25

Union Espanola creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

creates per match

Union Espanola
1.71
Deportes Valdivia
1.25

allows per match

Union Espanola
1.24
Deportes Valdivia
1.25

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw
68%
Union Espanola or Deportes Valdivia
75%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
58%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+
21%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals
77%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
43%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
19%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
71%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
36%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)
57%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.71 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.25 + Union Espanola defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Espanola scores more
42%
level
25%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
32%

Union Espanola at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: Union Espanola 0–0 Deportes Valdivia

Union Espanola and Deportes Valdivia drew 0-0 in Copa Chile on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.