Deportes Valdivia 0–2 Union Espanola

Deportes Valdivia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Union Espanola

9/4/2019

Copa Chile · 8th FinalsEstadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportes Valdivia22%

×Draw27%

Union Espanola51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes ValdiviaExpected goals in this matchUnion Espanola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.42

Deportes Valdivia

0.82

Union Espanola

1.42

Union Espanola creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

0.60

creates per match

1.45

1.40

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia

0.60

Union Espanola

1.45

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia

1.40

Union Espanola

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Union Espanola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw

49%

Deportes Valdivia or Union Espanola

73%

Draw or Union Espanola

78%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+

7%

Union Espanola wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals

56%

Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals

20%

Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals

5%

Union Espanola 1+ goals

76%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

41%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)

30%

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 0.60 + Union Espanola defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Union Espanola attack 1.45 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more

22%

level

27%

Union Espanola scores more

51%

Union Espanola at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff