Union Espanola 4–3 Deportes Iquique: Result & Stats

Union Espanola

FT

4 – 3

HT: 4 – 0

Deportes Iquique

D. González 45'

F. Frías 42', 7', 1'

Á. Ramos 90+4'

E. Puch 90' (pen)

H. Salinas 84'

6/1/2024

Primera División · Round 15Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Union Espanola47%

×Draw24%

Deportes Iquique29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EspanolaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Iquique

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.30

Union Espanola

1.71

Deportes Iquique

1.30

Union Espanola creates 32% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 68 away

1.68

creates per match

1.18

1.42

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Union Espanola

1.68

Deportes Iquique

1.18

allows per match

Union Espanola

1.42

Deportes Iquique

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Deportes Iquique →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw

71%

Union Espanola or Deportes Iquique

76%

Draw or Deportes Iquique

53%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+

25%

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals

82%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

51%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

24%

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

73%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

37%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

62%

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.75 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.68 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportes Iquique attack 1.18 + Union Espanola defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Espanola scores more

47%

level

24%

Deportes Iquique scores more

29%

Union Espanola at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

F. Frías

Union Espanola · F

9.3

Match Events

1'

F. Frías↳ E. Vecchio

7'

F. Frías↳ E. Vecchio

15'

F. Ovelar← E. Vecchio

42'

F. Frías↳ P. Aránguiz

45'

D. González↳ S. Ramírez

46'

Y. Andía← R. Gajardo

53'

Rubén Farfán

72'

Bastián Roco

72'

B. Yáñez← P. Aránguiz

72'

V. Adamo← F. Frías

74'

E. Hoyos← S. Pino

74'

J. Moya← A. Nadruz

78'

Álvaro Ramos

82'

B. Jáuregui← D. González

84'

H. Salinas↳ Y. Andía

90'

E. PuchPenalty

90+4'

Á. Ramos↳ R. Farfán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionDeportes

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots17

2Corners4

10Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots17

8On Target6

8Off Target3

1Blocked8

12Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

428Total Passes495

338Accurate Passes386

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0