Deportes Iquique 2–0 Union Espanola: Result & Stats

Deportes Iquique

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Espanola

S. Pino 47', 10' (pen)

11/9/2024

Primera División · Round 30Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Deportes Iquique42%

×Draw25%

Union Espanola33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes IquiqueExpected goals in this matchUnion Espanola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.29

Deportes Iquique

1.50

Union Espanola

1.29

Deportes Iquique creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 109 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.42

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Deportes Iquique

1.38

Union Espanola

1.17

allows per match

Deportes Iquique

1.42

Union Espanola

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Union Espanola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw

67%

Deportes Iquique or Union Espanola

75%

Draw or Union Espanola

58%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

21%

Union Espanola wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

78%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

44%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

19%

Union Espanola 1+ goals

72%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

37%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

56%

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 66 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.38 + Union Espanola defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Union Espanola attack 1.17 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more

42%

level

25%

Union Espanola scores more

33%

Deportes Iquique at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Pino

Deportes Iquique · F

8.9

Match Events

8'

José Tiznado

10'

S. PinoPenalty

34'

N. Peñailillo← J. Tiznado

39'

Pablo Aránguiz

45'

Steffan Pino

47'

S. Pino↳ E. Hoyos

55'

Edson Puch

70'

D. Fernández← D. Orellana

70'

J. Moya← E. Hoyos

78'

Luis Pavez

83'

B. Yáñez← E. Vecchio

83'

F. Ovelar← F. Massri

89'

R. Farfán← C. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesUnion

Overview

34%Possession66%

18Total Shots13

3Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots13

7On Target3

8Off Target8

3Blocked2

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

303Total Passes605

217Accurate Passes531

72%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1