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Union Espanola vs D. La Serena — Primera División 2018

Union Espanola
Union Espanola
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
D. La Serena
D. La Serena
S. Pereira 75'
8/2/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 18Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Union Espanola53%
×Draw22%
D. La Serena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Espanola
1.99
D. La Serena
1.31

Union Espanola creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Union Espanola
2.05
D. La Serena
1.05

allows per match

Union Espanola
1.57
D. La Serena
1.94

finishing

Union Espanola+0.38scores more
D. La Serena-0.48scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

D. La Serena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw
75%
Union Espanola or D. La Serena
78%
Draw or D. La Serena
47%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+
31%
D. La Serena wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals
86%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
59%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
32%
D. La Serena 1+ goals
73%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
38%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)
68%
D. La Serena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.94 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 2.05 + D. La Serena defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.99

D. La Serena attack 1.05 + Union Espanola defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union Espanola scores more
53%
level
22%
D. La Serena scores more
25%

Union Espanola at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
S. PereiraUnion EspanolaUnion Espanola · D
8.9

Match Events

5'
Lucas Alarcón
16'
Andrés Zanini
22'
N. Ferreyra← G. A. Jara Gonzalez
23'
Felipe Chamorro
34'
Bianneider Tamayo
46'
M. Celis← B. Tamayo
46'
F. Ovelar← F. Espinoza
46'
B. Vejar← K. Contreras
49'
Cristián Insaurralde
66'
R. Huerta← C. Insaurralde
70'
J. Fuentes← J. Vargas
70'
E. Herrera← A. Henriquez
75'
S. Pereira↳ P. Aranguiz
77'
Ariel Uribe
80'
A. Nadruz← I. Jeraldino
88'
M. Pinto← S. Gallegos
88'
F. Dinamarca← C. Gutierrez

Possession

57%Union

Shots

24Union

Pass accuracy

51%Union

Statistics

UnionD.
Overview
57%Possession43%
24Total Shots10
1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.22
11Corners2
16Fouls12
Shots
24Total Shots10
6On Target6
12Off Target3
6Blocked1
15Inside Box6
9Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
451Total Passes361
372Accurate Passes280
82%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
7Offsides5

Match Recap: Union Espanola vs D. La Serena

Union Espanola beat D. La Serena 1-0 in Primera División on August 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Pereira (75').

Union Espanola controlled possession (57%) and registered 24 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.