Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

D. La Serena vs Union Espanola — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Espanola
Union Espanola
M. Rivera 90'
3/1/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 3Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

D. La Serena40%
×Draw26%
Union Espanola34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.40
Union Espanola
1.25

D. La Serena creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 109 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.18
Union Espanola
1.17

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.34
Union Espanola
1.61

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Union Espanola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
66%
D. La Serena or Union Espanola
74%
Draw or Union Espanola
60%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
19%
Union Espanola wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
75%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
41%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
17%
Union Espanola 1+ goals
71%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
36%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
55%
Union Espanola (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 68 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.18 + Union Espanola defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Union Espanola attack 1.17 + D. La Serena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

D. La Serena scores more
40%
level
26%
Union Espanola scores more
34%

D. La Serena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
G. A. Jara GonzalezD. La SerenaD. La Serena · M
7.9

Match Events

33'
Sebastian Gallegos
56'
Sebastián Díaz
62'
G. A. Jara Gonzalez← S. Gallegos
62'
M. Rivera← F. Chamorro
62'
F. Diaz← J. Vargas
66'
F. Espinoza← G. Norambuena
66'
R. Vasquez← F. Ovelar
78'
M. Pinto← Jhonatan Kauan
79'
B. A. Carvallo U.← P. Aranguiz
90+1'
Bryan Carvallo
90+6'
N. Ferreyra← L. Ovando
90'
M. Rivera↳ M. Pinto

Possession

54%D.

Shots

20D.

Pass accuracy

52%D.

Statistics

D.Union
Overview
54%Possession46%
20Total Shots10
8Corners1
11Fouls12
Shots
20Total Shots10
5On Target3
8Off Target4
7Blocked3
7Inside Box4
13Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
442Total Passes379
356Accurate Passes289
81%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs Union Espanola

D. La Serena beat Union Espanola 1-0 in Primera División on March 1, 2025.

Goals: M. Rivera (90').

D. La Serena controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.