Union Espanola 0–1 Cobresal: Result & Stats

Union Espanola

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cobresal

5/3/2025

Primera División · Round 10Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Union Espanola47%

×Draw24%

Cobresal29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EspanolaExpected goals in this matchCobresal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.25

Union Espanola

1.65

Cobresal

1.25

Union Espanola creates 32% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 113 away

1.63

creates per match

1.04

1.46

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Union Espanola

1.63

Cobresal

1.04

allows per match

Union Espanola

1.46

Cobresal

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Cobresal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Cobresal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw

71%

Union Espanola or Cobresal

76%

Draw or Cobresal

53%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+

24%

Cobresal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals

81%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

49%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

23%

Cobresal 1+ goals

71%

Cobresal 2+ goals

36%

Cobresal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

62%

Cobresal (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 120 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.63 + Cobresal defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cobresal attack 1.04 + Union Espanola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Espanola scores more

47%

level

24%

Cobresal scores more

29%

Union Espanola at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff