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Cobresal vs Union Espanola — Primera División 2018

Cobresal
Cobresal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Espanola
Union Espanola
10/26/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Cobresal48%
×Draw25%
Union Espanola27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobresal
1.64
Union Espanola
1.16

Cobresal creates 41% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 119 away

creates per match

Cobresal
1.71
Union Espanola
1.18

allows per match

Cobresal
1.14
Union Espanola
1.56

finishing

Cobresal+0.00on par
Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Union Espanola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw
73%
Cobresal or Union Espanola
75%
Draw or Union Espanola
52%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+
25%
Union Espanola wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals
81%
Cobresal 2+ goals
49%
Cobresal 3+ goals
23%
Union Espanola 1+ goals
69%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
32%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)
64%
Union Espanola (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 112 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.71 + Union Espanola defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Union Espanola attack 1.18 + Cobresal defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cobresal scores more
48%
level
25%
Union Espanola scores more
27%

Cobresal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cobresal 1 – 0 Union Espanola

Cobresal beat Union Espanola 1-0 in Primera División on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador in El Salvador.