Union Espanola 1–1 Cobreloa: Result & Stats

Union Espanola

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cobreloa

4/11/2026

Primera B · Round 7Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Union Espanola54%

×Draw25%

Cobreloa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EspanolaExpected goals in this matchCobreloa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.93

Union Espanola

1.62

Cobreloa

0.93

Union Espanola creates 74% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 107 away

1.75

creates per match

0.97

0.88

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Union Espanola

1.75

Cobreloa

0.97

allows per match

Union Espanola

0.88

Cobreloa

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Cobreloa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Cobreloa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw

78%

Union Espanola or Cobreloa

75%

Draw or Cobreloa

46%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+

29%

Cobreloa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals

80%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

48%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

22%

Cobreloa 1+ goals

61%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

24%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

71%

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Cobreloa away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.49 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.75 + Cobreloa defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.62

Cobreloa attack 0.97 + Union Espanola defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Union Espanola scores more

54%

level

25%

Cobreloa scores more

22%

Union Espanola at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff