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Cobreloa vs Union Espanola — Primera División 2018

Cobreloa
Cobreloa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Espanola
Union Espanola
3/16/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 5Estadio Zorros del Desierto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cobreloa40%
×Draw25%
Union Espanola35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobreloa
1.44
Union Espanola
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Cobreloa
1.33
Union Espanola
1.19

allows per match

Cobreloa
1.47
Union Espanola
1.55

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par
Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

Union Espanola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw
65%
Cobreloa or Union Espanola
75%
Draw or Union Espanola
60%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+
19%
Union Espanola wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals
76%
Cobreloa 2+ goals
42%
Cobreloa 3+ goals
18%
Union Espanola 1+ goals
74%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
38%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)
53%
Union Espanola (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.33 + Union Espanola defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Union Espanola attack 1.19 + Cobreloa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cobreloa scores more
40%
level
25%
Union Espanola scores more
35%

Cobreloa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cobreloa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cobreloa vs Union Espanola

Cobreloa beat Union Espanola 1-0 in Primera División on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Calama.