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Union Edelweiß vs St. Martin i.M. — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Edelweiß
Union Edelweiß
FT
5 – 1
St. Martin i.M.
St. Martin i.M.
6/1/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 29Unionplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Union Edelweiß45%
×Draw23%
St. Martin i.M.32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Edelweiß
1.82
St. Martin i.M.
1.51

Union Edelweiß creates 21% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

creates per match

Union Edelweiß
2.01
St. Martin i.M.
1.65

allows per match

Union Edelweiß
1.38
St. Martin i.M.
1.64

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par
St. Martin i.M.+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

St. Martin i.M. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw
68%
Union Edelweiß or St. Martin i.M.
77%
Draw or St. Martin i.M.
55%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+
24%
St. Martin i.M. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals
84%
Union Edelweiß 2+ goals
54%
Union Edelweiß 3+ goals
27%
St. Martin i.M. 1+ goals
78%
St. Martin i.M. 2+ goals
44%
St. Martin i.M. 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)
58%
St. Martin i.M. (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

St. Martin i.M. away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.64 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + St. Martin i.M. defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

St. Martin i.M. attack 1.65 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more
45%
level
23%
St. Martin i.M. scores more
32%

Union Edelweiß at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Union Edelweiß 5–1 St. Martin i.M.

Union Edelweiß beat St. Martin i.M. 5-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Unionplatz in Linz.