St. Martin i.M. 2–3 Union Edelweiß: Result & Stats

St. Martin i.M.

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Union Edelweiß

10/19/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 12Fresh Energy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

St. Martin i.M.50%

×Draw21%

Union Edelweiß29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Martin i.M.Expected goals in this matchUnion Edelweiß

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.56

St. Martin i.M.

2.12

Union Edelweiß

1.56

St. Martin i.M. creates 36% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 88 away

2.33

creates per match

1.53

1.58

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

St. Martin i.M.

2.33

Union Edelweiß

1.53

allows per match

St. Martin i.M.

1.58

Union Edelweiß

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Martin i.M.+0.00on par

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Martin i.M. ↓

Union Edelweiß →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

St. Martin i.M. or draw

71%

St. Martin i.M. or Union Edelweiß

79%

Draw or Union Edelweiß

50%

Winning margin

St. Martin i.M. wins by 2+

30%

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

St. Martin i.M. 1+ goals

88%

St. Martin i.M. 2+ goals

62%

St. Martin i.M. 3+ goals

35%

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

79%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

46%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

St. Martin i.M. (draw refunded)

64%

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Martin i.M. at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.58 · 89 matches

Union Edelweiß away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Martin i.M. attack 2.33 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.12

Union Edelweiß attack 1.53 + St. Martin i.M. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

St. Martin i.M. scores more

50%

level

21%

Union Edelweiß scores more

29%

St. Martin i.M. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "St. Martin i.M. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff