Union Edelweiß 2–2 Pöttinger Grieskirchen

Union Edelweiß

FT

2 – 2

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

10/8/2021

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 10Unionplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Union Edelweiß56%

×Draw21%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EdelweißExpected goals in this matchPöttinger Grieskirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.33

Union Edelweiß

2.14

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.33

Union Edelweiß creates 61% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 29 away

2.01

creates per match

1.28

1.38

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Union Edelweiß

2.01

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.28

allows per match

Union Edelweiß

1.38

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

Pöttinger Grieskirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw

77%

Union Edelweiß or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

79%

Draw or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

44%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

34%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

88%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

63%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

36%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals

74%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals

38%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

70%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.14

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.28 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more

56%

level

21%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more

23%

Union Edelweiß at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff