Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3–1 Union Edelweiß

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

FT

3 – 1

Union Edelweiß

5/7/2022

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 25Fröling-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen37%

×Draw22%

Union Edelweiß41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pöttinger GrieskirchenExpected goals in this matchUnion Edelweiß

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.83

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.75

Union Edelweiß

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 88 away

1.61

creates per match

1.53

2.14

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.61

Union Edelweiß

1.53

allows per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.14

Union Edelweiß

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pöttinger Grieskirchen ↓

Union Edelweiß →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or draw

59%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or Union Edelweiß

78%

Draw or Union Edelweiß

63%

Winning margin

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+

19%

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals

83%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals

52%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals

25%

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

84%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

54%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)

48%

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Union Edelweiß away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.61 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Union Edelweiß attack 1.53 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more

37%

level

22%

Union Edelweiß scores more

41%

Union Edelweiß at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff