Union Edelweiß 2–0 Mondsee: Result & Stats

Union Edelweiß

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mondsee

10/17/2025

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 12JAZ LINZ SÜD Edelweiß

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Union Edelweiß47%

×Draw22%

Mondsee31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EdelweißExpected goals in this matchMondsee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.54

Union Edelweiß

1.92

Mondsee

1.54

Union Edelweiß creates 25% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

2.01

creates per match

1.71

1.38

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Union Edelweiß

2.01

Mondsee

1.71

allows per match

Union Edelweiß

1.38

Mondsee

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Mondsee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

Mondsee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw

69%

Union Edelweiß or Mondsee

78%

Draw or Mondsee

53%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

26%

Mondsee wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

85%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

57%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

30%

Mondsee 1+ goals

79%

Mondsee 2+ goals

45%

Mondsee 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

60%

Mondsee (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

Mondsee away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.83 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + Mondsee defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Mondsee attack 1.71 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more

47%

level

22%

Mondsee scores more

31%

Union Edelweiß at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff