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Mondsee vs Union Edelweiß — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Mondsee
Mondsee
FT
3 – 1
Union Edelweiß
Union Edelweiß
3/15/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 18BWT Arena Mondseeland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Mondsee49%
×Draw22%
Union Edelweiß29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondsee
1.92
Union Edelweiß
1.45

Mondsee creates 32% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 88 away

creates per match

Mondsee
1.95
Union Edelweiß
1.53

allows per match

Mondsee
1.36
Union Edelweiß
1.90

finishing

Mondsee+0.00on par
Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondsee ↓

Union Edelweiß →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mondsee or draw
71%
Mondsee or Union Edelweiß
78%
Draw or Union Edelweiß
51%

Winning margin

Mondsee wins by 2+
27%
Union Edelweiß wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mondsee 1+ goals
85%
Mondsee 2+ goals
57%
Mondsee 3+ goals
30%
Union Edelweiß 1+ goals
77%
Union Edelweiß 2+ goals
42%
Union Edelweiß 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mondsee (draw refunded)
62%
Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondsee at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Union Edelweiß away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondsee attack 1.95 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

Union Edelweiß attack 1.53 + Mondsee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mondsee scores more
49%
level
22%
Union Edelweiß scores more
29%

Mondsee at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mondsee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mondsee vs Union Edelweiß

Mondsee beat Union Edelweiß 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at BWT Arena Mondseeland in Mondsee.