Union Edelweiß 2–3 Bad Ischl: Result & Stats

Union Edelweiß

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Bad Ischl

10/25/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 13JAZ LINZ SÜD Edelweiß

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Union Edelweiß58%

×Draw20%

Bad Ischl23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EdelweißExpected goals in this matchBad Ischl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.40

Union Edelweiß

2.31

Bad Ischl

1.40

Union Edelweiß creates 65% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 60 away

2.01

creates per match

1.43

1.38

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Union Edelweiß

2.01

Bad Ischl

1.43

allows per match

Union Edelweiß

1.38

Bad Ischl

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

Bad Ischl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw

77%

Union Edelweiß or Bad Ischl

80%

Draw or Bad Ischl

42%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

36%

Bad Ischl wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

90%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

67%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

40%

Bad Ischl 1+ goals

75%

Bad Ischl 2+ goals

41%

Bad Ischl 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

72%

Bad Ischl (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

Bad Ischl away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + Bad Ischl defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.31

Bad Ischl attack 1.43 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more

58%

level

20%

Bad Ischl scores more

23%

Union Edelweiß at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff