Bad Ischl 2–4 Union Edelweiß: Result & Stats

Bad Ischl

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Union Edelweiß

5/30/2025

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 28ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bad Ischl41%

×Draw22%

Union Edelweiß37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad IschlExpected goals in this matchUnion Edelweiß

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.74

Bad Ischl

1.85

Union Edelweiß

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 88 away

1.80

creates per match

1.53

1.95

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Bad Ischl

1.80

Union Edelweiß

1.53

allows per match

Bad Ischl

1.95

Union Edelweiß

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Ischl ↓

Union Edelweiß →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bad Ischl or draw

63%

Bad Ischl or Union Edelweiß

78%

Draw or Union Edelweiß

59%

Winning margin

Bad Ischl wins by 2+

22%

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bad Ischl 1+ goals

84%

Bad Ischl 2+ goals

55%

Bad Ischl 3+ goals

28%

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

82%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

52%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bad Ischl (draw refunded)

53%

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Ischl at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.95 · 59 matches

Union Edelweiß away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Ischl attack 1.80 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Union Edelweiß attack 1.53 + Bad Ischl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bad Ischl scores more

41%

level

22%

Union Edelweiß scores more

37%

Bad Ischl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff