Union Douala 0–3 UMS de Loum: Result & Stats

Union Douala

FT

0 – 3

UMS de Loum

12/1/2019

Elite One · Round 10Middle Farm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Union Douala34%

×Draw32%

UMS de Loum34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union DoualaExpected goals in this matchUMS de Loum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.96

Union Douala

0.95

UMS de Loum

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

0.99

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Union Douala

1.00

UMS de Loum

0.92

allows per match

Union Douala

0.99

UMS de Loum

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

UMS de Loum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw

66%

Union Douala or UMS de Loum

68%

Draw or UMS de Loum

66%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+

12%

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals

61%

Union Douala 2+ goals

25%

Union Douala 3+ goals

7%

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

62%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

25%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)

50%

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Union Douala scores more

34%

level

32%

UMS de Loum scores more

34%

Union Douala at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff