UMS de Loum 2–1 Union Douala: Result & Stats

UMS de Loum

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Union Douala

4/23/2024

Elite One · Relegation Round - 5Stade Olembe Annexe B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UMS de Loum41%

×Draw34%

Union Douala25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMS de LoumExpected goals in this matchUnion Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.69

UMS de Loum

0.98

Union Douala

0.69

UMS de Loum creates 42% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 85 away

0.87

creates per match

0.71

0.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

UMS de Loum

0.87

Union Douala

0.71

allows per match

UMS de Loum

0.67

Union Douala

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Union Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw

75%

UMS de Loum or Union Douala

66%

Draw or Union Douala

59%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

16%

Union Douala wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

62%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

26%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

8%

Union Douala 1+ goals

50%

Union Douala 2+ goals

15%

Union Douala 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

62%

Union Douala (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Union Douala attack 0.71 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UMS de Loum scores more

41%

level

34%

Union Douala scores more

25%

UMS de Loum at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff