Union Douala 0–0 Sable: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Union Douala

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sable

4/22/2026

Elite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Union Douala43%

×Draw30%

Sable28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union DoualaExpected goals in this matchSable

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.90

Union Douala

1.20

Sable

0.90

Union Douala creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Union Douala

1.40

Sable

1.00

allows per match

Union Douala

0.80

Sable

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par

Sable+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Sable →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw

72%

Union Douala or Sable

70%

Draw or Sable

57%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+

19%

Sable wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals

70%

Union Douala 2+ goals

34%

Union Douala 3+ goals

12%

Sable 1+ goals

59%

Sable 2+ goals

23%

Sable 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)

61%

Sable (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Sable away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.40 + Sable defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sable attack 1.00 + Union Douala defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Douala scores more

43%

level

30%

Sable scores more

28%

Union Douala at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff