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Sable vs Union Douala — Elite Two 2020

Sable
Sable
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Union Douala
Union Douala
2/14/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sable61%
×Draw20%
Union Douala19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sable
2.23
Union Douala
1.18

Sable creates 89% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sable
2.10
Union Douala
1.45

allows per match

Sable
0.90
Union Douala
2.36

finishing

Sable+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sable or draw
81%
Sable or Union Douala
80%
Draw or Union Douala
39%

Winning margin

Sable wins by 2+
38%
Union Douala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sable 1+ goals
89%
Sable 2+ goals
65%
Sable 3+ goals
38%
Union Douala 1+ goals
69%
Union Douala 2+ goals
33%
Union Douala 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sable (draw refunded)
76%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Union Douala away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable attack 2.10 + Union Douala defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.23

Union Douala attack 1.45 + Sable defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sable scores more
61%
level
20%
Union Douala scores more
19%

Sable at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sable will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sable vs Union Douala

Sable beat Union Douala 5-0 in Elite Two on February 14, 2026.