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Union Douala vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Union Douala
Union Douala
FT
0 – 1
New Star
New Star
3/31/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 11Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Union Douala48%
×Draw29%
New Star23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Douala
1.31
New Star
0.82

Union Douala creates 60% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 32 away

creates per match

Union Douala
1.00
New Star
0.66

allows per match

Union Douala
0.99
New Star
1.63

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw
77%
Union Douala or New Star
71%
Draw or New Star
52%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+
23%
New Star wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals
73%
Union Douala 2+ goals
38%
Union Douala 3+ goals
14%
New Star 1+ goals
56%
New Star 2+ goals
20%
New Star 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)
67%
New Star (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

New Star away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + New Star defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

New Star attack 0.66 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Douala scores more
48%
level
29%
New Star scores more
23%

Union Douala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Douala vs New Star

New Star beat Union Douala 1-0 in Elite One on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe).