New Star 1–1 Union Douala: Result & Stats

New Star

FT

1 – 1

Union Douala

2/10/2019

Elite One · Round 2Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

New Star33%

×Draw30%

Union Douala38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New StarExpected goals in this matchUnion Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.11

New Star

1.01

Union Douala

1.11

Union Douala creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 84 away

0.94

creates per match

0.71

1.52

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

New Star

0.94

Union Douala

0.71

allows per match

New Star

1.52

Union Douala

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Star+0.00on par

Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Star ↓

Union Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

New Star or draw

62%

New Star or Union Douala

70%

Draw or Union Douala

67%

Winning margin

New Star wins by 2+

12%

Union Douala wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

New Star 1+ goals

64%

New Star 2+ goals

27%

New Star 3+ goals

8%

Union Douala 1+ goals

67%

Union Douala 2+ goals

30%

Union Douala 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

New Star (draw refunded)

46%

Union Douala (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Star at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Star attack 0.94 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Union Douala attack 0.71 + New Star defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

New Star scores more

33%

level

30%

Union Douala scores more

38%

Union Douala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff