Union Douala 2–0 Foncha ST: Result & Stats

Union Douala

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Foncha ST

6/11/2026

Elite Two · Relegation Group - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Union Douala57%

×Draw23%

Foncha ST20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union DoualaExpected goals in this matchFoncha ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.92

Union Douala

1.76

Foncha ST

0.92

Union Douala creates 91% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 50 away

1.40

creates per match

1.04

0.80

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Union Douala

1.40

Foncha ST

1.04

allows per match

Union Douala

0.80

Foncha ST

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par

Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Foncha ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw

80%

Union Douala or Foncha ST

77%

Draw or Foncha ST

43%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+

32%

Foncha ST wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals

83%

Union Douala 2+ goals

52%

Union Douala 3+ goals

26%

Foncha ST 1+ goals

60%

Foncha ST 2+ goals

23%

Foncha ST 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)

75%

Foncha ST (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.40 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.76

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Union Douala defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Union Douala scores more

57%

level

23%

Foncha ST scores more

20%

Union Douala at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff